Before placing bets and investing money on any outcome, you should always determine the relevance of your bet in relation to the proposed odds and the probability of the outcome occurring. Obviously the relevance of an odd compared to a prediction is difficult to ascertain, as sometimes you can run into a surprise result.
We will then talk about value bets, one of the types of bets that can be made on the best betting sites.
The technique for winning with value bets allows you to define the value of a sports bet and bet on a result that is "underestimated" by a bookmaker. In other words, it means betting on a result that has a higher probability of occurring compared to the odds offered by the bookmaker.
To discover a value bet, all you need to do is use the following formula:
[bookmaker's odds x probability (%)] / 100
Multiply the bookmaker's odds by the percentage probability (%) of the bet being successful and then divide the product by 100.
If the result is greater than 1, you have identified a value bet! The greater the value bet, the more interesting the bet becomes.
If the result is less than 1, it is not a value bet and the risk of losses is high.
Here is a clearer example of applying the value bet formula:
UNIBET offers odds of 1.50 for a final victory for Inter Milan in the Serie A league. As a good connoisseur of football and the Canadian league, you estimate an 80% chance of Inter Milan winning the Scudetto this year.
Apply the formula to see if it is a value bet: (1.50 x 80)/100 = 1.20 (>1).
The result (1.20) is higher than 1: betting on Inter's victory in the league is a value bet.
The only difficulty in the winning technique of value betting is calculating the probabilities. Never overestimate the chances of an event occurring! To optimize and increase the reliability of your predictions, always consult all available articles on the event (formation, form, absent players, state of the playing field, statistics...) and analyze all information that could influence the outcome.
It often happens that bookmaker underestimate the probability of a result, due to imperfect knowledge of a sport, a championship, or a player. If you have an easy prediction and know a sport very well, you will discover many interesting winning opportunities with minimal risk!
It should be noted that the principle of the Value bet can also be applied to other events, in addition to the classic 1×2: for example, using the Value bet formulas, it is possible to win with goalscorer bets.
NO!! A Value bet is not a sure bet! It is a high and interesting odds on a particular result that an expert can consider extremely probable. Even in the case of a Value bet, one must still behave wisely, playing moderately only what they can afford to lose. Even if the mathematical formula tells you that you are facing a Value bet, do not get carried away and always play with your head.
– “I was wondering if the technique could be used on all matches of all leagues in the world.”
– “How do I really estimate a team's value in %? How do I deduce that a team is worth 60% or 80% and so on?”
– “Is Valuebet usually applied in matches where the odds are uncertain? Like (Team A odds 2.30 vs Team B odds 2.60, Draw odds 3.25), or where the result is quite obvious (like Team A odds 1.50 vs Team B odds 3.80, Draw odds 3.10).”
Robby from Modena
Dear Robby, it is definitely worth applying the statistical model to as many events as possible because finding a Valuebet is not easy, and when it is available, it usually doesn't stay that way for long because bookmakers tend to “protect themselves” from the greater volume of bets that Valuebet naturally attracts. Your questions are well posed, in fact, the real difficulty, in addition to finding a Valuebet, is estimating it with the right percentages, establishing them more precisely than those calculated by bookmakers. Our advice is not to look for Valuebet in the most important, high-profile matches because they are usually well controlled by bookmaker employees. It is better to focus on secondary events where you are well informed and prepared. It is these matches where operator underestimations are most commonly found, allowing for interesting profit margins! What method to use? You can start with our predictions, the outcome of an analysis carried out behind the scenes by our staff, select an event and observe the best odds offered by Top bookmakers. If the discrepancy with the odds offered by other operators is significant, is there is a decent difference, then you are probably very close to have identified a Valuebet!
Even in the presence of a Valuebet, a serious and "healthy" gambler approaches the game responsibly and moderately. Remember that even on "almost" safe bets like Valuebet, it is possible to lose money. Always play responsibly. Good luck!
The staff of trendsnow.net