Before placing bets and investing money on any outcome, you should always determine the relevance of your bet in relation to the proposed odds and the probability of the outcome occurring. Obviously the relevance of an odd compared to a prediction is difficult to ascertain, as sometimes you can run into a surprise result.
We will then talk about value bets, one of the types of bets that can be made on the best betting sites.
The technique for winning with value bets allows you to define the value of a sports bet and bet on an outcome that is “underestimated” by a bookmaker. In other words, it is betting on an outcome that has a higher probability of occurring than the odds offered by the bookmaker.
To discover a value bet, all you need to do is use the following formula:
[bookmaker's quota x probability (%)] / 100
Multiply the bookmaker's odds by the percentage (%) probability of the bet succeeding and then divide the product by 100.
If the result is greater than 1, you have identified a value bet! The greater the value bet, the more interesting the bet becomes.
If the result is less than 1, it is not a value bet and the risk of losses is high.
Here's a clearer example of using the value bet formula:
UNIBET offers odds of 1.50 for a final victory of Inter in the Serie A championship. As a good connoisseur of football and the Canadian championship, you estimate the chances of Inter winning the Scudetto this year at 80%.
Apply the formula to see if it is a value bet: (1.50 x 80)/100 = 1.20 (>1).
The result (1.20) is higher than 1: betting on Inter winning the championship is a value bet.
The only difficulty in the winning technique with value bets is the calculation of probabilities. Never overestimate the chances of an event happening! To optimize and increase the reliability of your predictions, always consult all available articles on the event (formation, form, absent players, state of the playing field, statistics...) and analyze all information that may influence the result.
It often happens that bookmaker underestimate the probability of a result, due to imperfect knowledge of a sport, a league or a player. If you have an easy prediction and know a sport very well, you will discover many interesting winning possibilities with minimal risk!
It should be noted that the principle of the Value bet can be applied to other events besides the classic 1×2. For example, by using the Value bet formulas, you can win with goalscorer bets.
NO!! A Value bet is not a guaranteed bet! It's a high and interesting odd on a particular outcome that an expert can consider extremely probable. Even in the case of a Value bet, one must still behave wisely, playing with moderation only what one can afford to lose. Even if the mathematical formula tells you that you have a Value bet, don't let it go to your head and always play with a clear mind.
– “I was wondering if the technique could be applied to all matches in all leagues around the world.”
– “How do I really estimate a team's value? How do I deduce that a certain team is worth 60% or 80%, and so on?”
– “Is Valuebet usually applied in matches where the odds are uncertain? Like (Team A odds 2.30 vs Team B odds 2.60, Draw odds 3.25), or where the result is quite obvious (like Team A odds 1.50 vs Team B odds 3.80, Draw 3.10)?
Robby from Modena
Dear Robby, it's definitely worth applying the statistical model to as many events as possible, because finding a Valuebet is not easy, and when it's available it usually doesn't remain so for long because bookmakers tend to “protect themselves” from the higher volume of bets that Valuebet naturally attracts. Your questions are well put, in fact the real difficulty, besides finding a Valuebet, is precisely estimating it with the right percentages, setting them more accurately than those calculated by bookmakers. Our advice is not to look for Valuebets in the most important, headline events, because they are usually well controlled by bookmaker employees, it's better to focus on secondary events, where you are very well informed and prepared. It's in these matches that undervalued odds are most often found by operators, where interesting profit margins are gained! Which method to use? You can start with our predictions, the result of an analysis carried out behind the scenes by our staff, selecting an event and observing which is the best odds offered by Top bookmakers. If the difference with the odds offered by other operators is interesting, if there is a decent difference, you are likely very close to having identified a Valuebet!
Even in the presence of a Valuebet, a serious and "healthy" bettor approaches the game responsibly and moderately. Remember that even on "almost" safe bets like Valuebets, it is possible to lose money. Always play responsibly. Good luck!
The staff of trendsnow.net